Outlier Economy
Inflation slows to 3-year low of 4.6% in July
South Africa’s consumer price index slowed to 4.6% year-on-year in July from 5.1% in June, Statistics SA announced on Wednesday. The last time it was this low was three years ago.
Food inflation has also dipped. The annual rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages is 4.5%, down from 4.6% in June. This is a significant decrease from November 2023’s high of 9%. It is now at its lowest since September 2020.
Despite overall food inflation slowing, some items continue to show upward momentum – especially in the bread and cereals category, with staples being hard hit by crop production shortages. Samp is up 6.9% from this time last year, while mielie meal has risen by an average of 5.1%.
Other products that have recorded hefty price hikes are pizza or pies (+11.6%) and rice (+21.3%). A kilogram of rice cost an average of R34 in July, R9 more than in July 2023. Flour and pasta are, however, all cheaper than a year ago.
Hot beverages continue to steam ahead: 250g of tea cost R57 in July (+R12 from last year) and 250g of instant coffee has increased by R14 to R66.
👀 Track the prices of 22 common items with The Outlier’s Consumer Price dashboard. Note: all average food prices have been rounded
South Africa’s Citrus Growers Association has revised its estimates for 2024 exports because of the bad weather that has affected orange producers. It expects to pack and ship 162.3-million 15kg cartons this year, a drop of 10.6% from its original estimate of 181.7-million cartons.
South Africa is the world’s second-largest citrus exporter in the world. It shipped a record 165.1-million cartons last year but bad weather in several citrus-growing regions – including the torrential rainfall in the Western Cape – have impacted crops.
The shortage has affected prices, which are reportedly 56% higher than this time last year.
South Africa’s business mood is improving, with a gauge compiled by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry averaging 111.2 for the first half of 2024. This is an improvement from 109.8 recorded over the same period last year.
The sentiment gauge rose to 109.1 in July from 107.8 in May. South Africa’s new multiparty government has created an opportunity for the country to boost economic growth and investment, the business group said.
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Unemployment continues its upward climb in SA, with women hit hardest
South Africa’s unemployment rate continues to rise, with the national unemployment rate nudging up 0.6 percentage points to 33.5% for the second quarter of 2024, Statistics South Africa reported on Tuesday.
There are now 8.38-million unemployed people, an increase of 158,000. Almost half the unemployed are women (4.15-million), according to StatsSA’s latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey.
‘While both men and women have seen increases in unemployment rates across all educational categories, the data highlights a disproportionately greater impact on women,’ StatsSA says.
The unemployment rate of women graduates stood at 10.7% in the second quarter of 2024, which is higher than the 8.3% among men with similar qualifications.
There has been a significant increase among women with other tertiary qualifications in the past 10 years, with the unemployment rate jumping almost 12 percentage points from 15.1% the second quarter of 2014 to 26.9% in Q2 this year. The unemployment rate of women with a matric rose from 28.8% to 39.5%.
South Africa ranks among the top countries for retail space per capita. Nonetheless, the Financial Mail reports, there are at least 101 new shopping centres in the pipeline over the next three years.
When completed, the new malls will bring the number in South Africa to more than 2,400 and increase retail space by 1.7-million square metres to about 25-million square metres, according to a joint report by MSCI Real Estate and Pooled Data Services, which analyses South Africa’s retail pipeline.
South Africa’s fuel price drops for third month in a row
Drivers across South Africa can look forward to a small reprieve at the pump from Wednesday 7 August: the department of mineral resources and energy has announced a 15c decrease in the price of a litre of petrol across the country.
Petrol in inland areas will drop to R22.71 a litre for the 93 octane grade, and to R23.11 a litre for 95 octane. The price of diesel will drop by 28c (0.05% sulphur) and 17c (0.005% sulphur) a litre.
This is the third consecutive month that the petrol price has dropped, down from about R25.50 (95 octane) a litre in May, largely on the back of lower Brent crude prices. The government has removed the slate levy for August, a mechanism it uses to manage daily fluctuations in fuel costs.